Matchup Machine

Michael Conforto

Worst 3% of matchups for Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen

Best 38% of matchups for M. Conforto

Extreme advantage for Conforto

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.0%	4.5%	14.6%	11.2%	23.5%
MLB (+/-)	+1.2	+0.2	+0.6	+1.5	-1.7
Conforto	+0.6	+0.4	+0.2	-0.8	+0.5
Gallen	+0.7	+0.1	+0.2	+3.1	-2.7

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.0%

4.5%

14.6%

11.2%

23.5%

MLB (+/-)

+1.2

+0.2

+0.6

+1.5

-1.7

Conforto

+0.6

+0.4

+0.2

-0.8

+0.5

Gallen

+0.7

+0.1

+0.2

+3.1

-2.7

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	10	3	0	0	3	1	1	.300
Expected From Contact →			3.20	0.04	0.14	3.02			.320

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	GIDP			6%	94%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-08-01	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-08-01	Single		2%	44%	54%
2023-08-01	Flyout	4%	2%		94%
2023-05-13	Single		4%	80%	15%
2023-05-13	Groundout			38%	62%
2023-05-13	Groundout		5%	45%	49%
2021-05-07	Walk
2021-05-07	Groundout			2%	97%
2021-05-07	Single			81%	19%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	48%	41	LHB vs RHP	84	48%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

48%

LHB vs RHP

48%

⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
46%	31	Fastball	84	62%	⭐
23%	48	Breaking	61	24%
16%	21	Offspeed	95	14%	⭐⭐
		------------------
45%	12	Four-Seam FB	66	49%	⭐
55%	43	Knuckle-Curve	113	23%	⭐⭐
59%	16	Changeup	98	14%	⭐⭐
51%	75	Cutter	62	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

46%

Fastball

62%

⭐

23%

Breaking

24%

16%

Offspeed

14%

⭐⭐

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

49%

⭐

55%

Knuckle-Curve

113

23%

⭐⭐

59%

Changeup

14%

⭐⭐

51%

Cutter

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
69%	55	Bottom of zone	70	13%
68%	67	Away / Arm Side	79	11%
74%	29	Top of zone	64	10%
67%	17	In / Glove Side	47	8%
78%	55	Middle	48	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

69%

Bottom of zone

13%

68%

Away / Arm Side

11%

74%

Top of zone

10%

67%

In / Glove Side

78%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
45%	10	Below the zone	96	41%	⭐⭐
28%	59	Away / Arm Side	107	26%	⭐
32%	24	In / Glove Side	70	25%	⭐
27%	20	Above the zone	84	19%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Below the zone

41%

⭐⭐

28%

Away / Arm Side

107

26%

⭐

32%

In / Glove Side

25%

⭐

27%

Above the zone

19%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
58%	45	2 Strikes	96	31%	⭐
51%	48	Batter Behind	91	31%	⭐
31%	32	First Pitch	78	26%	⭐
55%	45	Batter Ahead	95	24%	⭐
60%	44	3 Balls	107	7%	⭐⭐
66%	46	Full Count	103	5%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

58%

2 Strikes

31%

⭐

51%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐

31%

First Pitch

26%

⭐

55%

Batter Ahead

24%

⭐

60%

3 Balls

107

⭐⭐

66%

Full Count

103

⭐