Matchup Machine

Pete Alonso

Worst 26% of matchups for Braxton Garrett

Braxton Garrett

Best 42% of matchups for Pete Alonso

Moderate advantage for Alonso

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.2%	4.6%	12.7%	9.1%	23.5%
MLB (+/-)	+1.4	+0.4	-1.3	-0.6	-1.7
Alonso	-0.5	+0.4	+2.1	-1.7	-4.1
Garrett	+1.5	-0.3	-3.5	+1.6	+2.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.2%

4.6%

12.7%

9.1%

23.5%

MLB (+/-)

+1.4

+0.4

-1.3

-0.6

-1.7

Alonso

-0.5

+0.4

+2.1

-1.7

-4.1

Garrett

+1.5

-0.3

-3.5

+1.6

+2.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	13	4	1	0	3	3	2	.308
Expected From Contact →			4.29	1.00	1.43	1.86			.330

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single		90%	7%	3%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-04-09	GIDP			2%	97%
2023-04-09	Strikeout
2023-04-09	Single			75%	24%
2023-04-01	Single			88%	12%
2023-04-01	Groundout		49%	14%	37%
2022-07-09	Home Run	100%
2022-07-09	Flyout				100%
2022-06-18	Flyout				99%
2022-06-18	Flyout				100%
2021-08-05	Flyout				99%
2021-08-05	Walk
2021-08-05	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	46%	57	RHB vs LHP	8	77%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

46%

RHB vs LHP

77%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	45%	106	Fastball	3	56%
	25%	25	Breaking	54	35%
	12%	23	Offspeed	49	9%
			------------------
⭐⭐	45%	111	Sinker	13	31%
	48%	13	Slider	63	26%	⭐
	47%	45	Cutter	11	16%
	53%	32	Changeup	39	9%
	40%	28	Curveball	29	9%
⭐⭐	45%	100	Four-Seam FB	26	9%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

45%

106

Fastball

56%

25%

Breaking

35%

12%

Offspeed

------------------

⭐⭐

45%

111

Sinker

31%

48%

Slider

26%

⭐

47%

Cutter

16%

53%

Changeup

40%

Curveball

⭐⭐

45%

100

Four-Seam FB

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	62%	79	Bottom of zone	-33	16%
	67%	40	In / Glove Side	-27	12%
⭐⭐	63%	100	Away / Arm Side	-12	10%
⭐⭐	72%	107	Top of zone	3	9%
	60%	26	Middle	-11	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

62%

Bottom of zone

-33

16%

67%

In / Glove Side

-27

12%

⭐⭐

63%

100

Away / Arm Side

-12

10%

⭐⭐

72%

107

Top of zone

60%

Middle

-11

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
44%	44	Below the zone	79	41%
29%	43	In / Glove Side	125	31%	⭐⭐
37%	23	Away / Arm Side	17	17%
25%	40	Above the zone	38	14%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

44%

Below the zone

41%

29%

In / Glove Side

125

31%

⭐⭐

37%

Away / Arm Side

17%

25%

Above the zone

14%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	52%	71	Batter Behind	32	32%
⭐	63%	76	2 Strikes	23	30%
	26%	9	First Pitch	8	26%
⭐	48%	69	Batter Ahead	0	23%
⭐	57%	75	3 Balls	28	6%
⭐⭐	71%	91	Full Count	8	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

52%

Batter Behind

32%

⭐

63%

2 Strikes

30%

26%

First Pitch

26%

⭐

48%

Batter Ahead

23%

⭐

57%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

71%

Full Count