Matchup Machine

Matt Duffy

Worst 30% of matchups for Logan Allen

Logan Allen

Best 21% of matchups for Matt Duffy

Moderate advantage for Duffy

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.5%	4.6%	17.7%	6.7%	18.3%
MLB (+/-)	-0.3	+0.3	+3.8	-3.0	-6.9
Duffy	+0.3	+0.0	+1.0	+0.3	-5.2
Allen	-0.4	+0.7	+2.8	-3.3	-3.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.5%

4.6%

17.7%

6.7%

18.3%

MLB (+/-)

-0.3

+0.3

+3.8

-3.0

-6.9

Duffy

+0.3

+0.0

+1.0

+0.3

-5.2

Allen

-0.4

+0.7

+2.8

-3.3

-3.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000
Expected From Contact →			0.40	0.00	0.20	0.19			.080

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-07-24	Field Error
2023-07-24	Flyout				99%
2023-07-24	Lineout		20%	8%	72%
2023-06-28	Groundout			11%	89%
2023-06-28	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	53%	28	RHB vs LHP	67	83%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

53%

RHB vs LHP

83%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
49%	48	Fastball	78	54%
26%	-13	Breaking	40	24%
14%	40	Offspeed	57	22%
		------------------
50%	43	Four-Seam FB	57	45%
52%	-7	Slider	42	24%
58%	37	Changeup	53	20%
55%	18	Cutter	69	9%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

49%

Fastball

54%

26%

-13

Breaking

24%

14%

Offspeed

22%

------------------

50%

Four-Seam FB

45%

52%

-7

Slider

24%

58%

Changeup

20%

55%

Cutter

⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
66%	7	Bottom of zone	62	13%	⭐
61%	46	Away / Arm Side	99	13%	⭐
62%	25	Top of zone	80	12%	⭐
67%	37	In / Glove Side	66	8%
69%	18	Middle	38	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

66%

Bottom of zone

13%

⭐

61%

Away / Arm Side

13%

⭐

62%

Top of zone

12%

⭐

67%

In / Glove Side

69%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	45%	12	Below the zone	52	34%
⭐	31%	77	Away / Arm Side	24	28%
	46%	-3	In / Glove Side	82	23%	⭐⭐
	34%	48	Above the zone	58	23%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Below the zone

34%

⭐

31%

Away / Arm Side

28%

46%

-3

In / Glove Side

23%

⭐⭐

34%

Above the zone

23%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
71%	33	2 Strikes	56	30%
54%	18	Batter Behind	60	29%	⭐
52%	46	Batter Ahead	70	27%
39%	11	First Pitch	73	25%	⭐
58%	70	3 Balls	64	8%
79%	71	Full Count	58	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

71%

2 Strikes

30%

54%

Batter Behind

29%

⭐

52%

Batter Ahead

27%

39%

First Pitch

25%

⭐

58%

3 Balls

79%

Full Count