Matchup Machine

Alex Bregman

Worst 5% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Best 37% of matchups for Alex Bregman

Extreme advantage for Bregman

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.3%	5.0%	16.4%	9.9%	14.5%
MLB (+/-)	+0.5	+0.8	+2.5	+0.2	-10.7
Bregman	+0.5	+0.5	+0.9	-2.1	-2.0
Gibson	-0.0	+0.3	+1.1	+1.8	-7.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.3%

5.0%

16.4%

9.9%

14.5%

MLB (+/-)

+0.5

+0.8

+2.5

+0.2

-10.7

Bregman

+0.5

+0.9

-2.1

-2.0

Gibson

-0.0

+0.3

+1.1

+1.8

-7.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	13	2	1	0	1	3	2	.154
Expected From Contact →			2.67	0.65	0.22	1.81			.206

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			13%	87%
2023-09-19	Home Run	65%	2%		33%
2023-09-19	Walk
2021-06-15	Groundout		2%	5%	93%
2021-06-15	Forceout		6%	17%	77%
2021-06-15	Strikeout
2021-05-21	Flyout				100%
2021-05-21	Flyout				99%
2021-05-21	Groundout			36%	63%
2021-05-16	Single		9%	79%	12%
2021-05-16	Strikeout
2021-05-16	Groundout			11%	89%
2020-09-26	Strikeout
2020-09-26	Fielders Choice Out			19%	80%
2020-09-26	Walk
2020-09-16	Flyout				99%
2020-09-16	Groundout			23%	76%
2020-09-16	Walk
2020-09-16	Double		78%	18%	4%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	41%	97	RHB vs RHP	32	52%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

41%

RHB vs RHP

52%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	42%	98	Fastball	16	56%
	21%	50	Breaking	56	27%
	10%	67	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
⭐	42%	83	Sinker	29	26%
	37%	43	Slider	58	19%
	41%	61	Cutter	21	18%
	49%	67	Changeup	38	17%
⭐⭐	43%	96	Four-Seam FB	30	12%
	38%	65	Curveball	48	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

42%

Fastball

56%

21%

Breaking

27%

10%

Offspeed

17%

------------------

⭐

42%

Sinker

26%

37%

Slider

19%

41%

Cutter

18%

49%

Changeup

17%

⭐⭐

43%

Four-Seam FB

12%

38%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	56%	107	Away / Glove Side	53	14%
	59%	24	Bottom of zone	19	14%
⭐⭐	64%	101	Top of zone	21	9%
	64%	45	In / Arm Side	23	6%
	77%	57	Middle	19	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

56%

107

Away / Glove Side

14%

59%

Bottom of zone

14%

⭐⭐

64%

101

Top of zone

64%

In / Arm Side

77%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	22%	96	Away / Glove Side	75	47%
	31%	85	Below the zone	50	44%
⭐	27%	75	Above the zone	24	16%
	26%	40	In / Arm Side	5	8%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

22%

Away / Glove Side

47%

31%

Below the zone

44%

⭐

27%

Above the zone

16%

26%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
⭐⭐	46%	88	Batter Ahead	2	28%
⭐⭐	57%	107	2 Strikes	37	27%
	45%	83	Batter Behind	56	26%
	25%	58	First Pitch	24	26%
⭐⭐	53%	100	3 Balls	0	8%
⭐⭐	66%	107	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

⭐⭐

46%

Batter Ahead

28%

⭐⭐

57%

107

2 Strikes

27%

45%

Batter Behind

26%

25%

First Pitch

26%

⭐⭐

53%

100

3 Balls

⭐⭐

66%

107

Full Count

-20