Matchup Machine

J.D. Davis

Best 30% of matchups for Zac Gallen

Zac Gallen

Worst 38% of matchups for J.D. Davis

Moderate advantage for Gallen

- 5

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.9%	3.8%	14.1%	6.8%	34.8%
MLB (+/-)	+0.1	-0.4	+0.1	-2.9	+9.6
Davis	+0.1	-0.1	+0.3	-0.7	+0.5
Gallen	-0.4	-0.6	-0.3	-1.3	+8.6

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.9%

3.8%

14.1%

6.8%

34.8%

MLB (+/-)

+0.1

-0.4

+0.1

-2.9

+9.6

Davis

+0.1

-0.1

+0.3

-0.7

+0.5

Gallen

-0.4

-0.6

-0.3

-1.3

+8.6

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	9	9	1	0	0	1	3	0	.111
Expected From Contact →			2.21	0.23	0.96	1.02			.245

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-08-01	Strikeout
2023-08-01	Strikeout
2023-08-01	Single		15%	63%	22%
2023-05-13	Sac Fly Double Play	23%	42%		35%
2023-05-13	Lineout		5%	24%	71%
2023-05-13	Lineout		34%	10%	56%
2022-08-18	Strikeout
2022-08-18	Groundout			4%	95%
2022-08-18	Field Error

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	56%	9	RHB vs RHP	90	52%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

56%

RHB vs RHP

52%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
54%	8	Fastball	84	62%	⭐⭐
26%	31	Breaking	61	24%
8%	62	Offspeed	95	14%
		------------------
56%	23	Four-Seam FB	66	49%	⭐
42%	50	Knuckle-Curve	113	23%	⭐⭐
61%	53	Changeup	98	14%	⭐
54%	74	Cutter	62	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

54%

Fastball

62%

⭐⭐

26%

Breaking

24%

Offspeed

14%

------------------

56%

Four-Seam FB

49%

⭐

42%

Knuckle-Curve

113

23%

⭐⭐

61%

Changeup

14%

⭐

54%

Cutter

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
83%	37	Bottom of zone	70	13%
67%	15	Away / Glove Side	85	12%	⭐⭐
88%	8	In / Arm Side	70	11%	⭐
80%	-23	Top of zone	64	10%	⭐
87%	33	Middle	71	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

83%

Bottom of zone

13%

67%

Away / Glove Side

12%

⭐⭐

88%

In / Arm Side

11%

⭐

80%

-23

Top of zone

10%

⭐

87%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
47%	44	Below the zone	96	41%	⭐
31%	54	Away / Glove Side	69	29%
39%	25	In / Arm Side	68	20%	⭐
27%	9	Above the zone	84	19%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

47%

Below the zone

41%

⭐

31%

Away / Glove Side

29%

39%

In / Arm Side

20%

⭐

27%

Above the zone

19%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
62%	3	2 Strikes	96	31%	⭐⭐
56%	5	Batter Behind	91	31%	⭐⭐
49%	65	First Pitch	78	26%
60%	28	Batter Ahead	95	24%	⭐⭐
65%	39	3 Balls	107	7%	⭐⭐
71%	51	Full Count	103	5%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

62%

2 Strikes

31%

⭐⭐

56%

Batter Behind

31%

⭐⭐

49%

First Pitch

26%

60%

Batter Ahead

24%

⭐⭐

65%

3 Balls

107

⭐⭐

71%

Full Count

103

⭐