Matchup Machine

Jurickson Profar

Worst 6% of matchups for Ryan Feltner

Ryan Feltner

Best 13% of matchups for J. Profar

Extreme advantage for Profar

+10

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.3%	4.2%	14.4%	16.0%	14.6%
MLB (+/-)	-0.5	-0.1	+0.4	+6.3	-10.6
Profar	-0.1	-0.1	-0.5	+4.0	-3.7
Feltner	-0.4	+0.1	+0.8	+3.2	-7.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.3%

4.2%

14.4%

16.0%

14.6%

MLB (+/-)

-0.5

-0.1

+0.4

+6.3

-10.6

Profar

-0.1

-0.5

+4.0

-3.7

Feltner

-0.4

+0.1

+0.8

+3.2

-7.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	11	11	4	0	0	4	3	0	.364
Expected From Contact →			2.83	0.00	0.07	2.76			.257

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Pop Out				100%
2023-09-19	Pop Out				100%
2022-09-23	Strikeout
2022-09-23	Single		1%	11%	88%
2022-09-23	Flyout				98%
2022-08-02	Single			94%	6%
2022-08-02	Single		3%	80%	17%
2022-08-02	Strikeout
2022-06-11	Single		2%	45%	54%
2022-06-11	Strikeout
2022-06-11	Groundout			45%	55%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	50%	17	LHB vs RHP	36	54%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

50%

LHB vs RHP

54%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
47%	33	Fastball	48	49%
27%	15	Breaking	38	37%
14%	14	Offspeed	42	14%
		------------------
55%	-2	Slider	43	29%
48%	19	Four-Seam FB	43	27%
44%	70	Sinker	66	21%
49%	6	Changeup	41	14%
53%	45	Curveball	22	8%
45%	26	Cutter	62	2%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

49%

27%

Breaking

37%

14%

Offspeed

14%

------------------

55%

-2

Slider

29%

48%

Four-Seam FB

27%

44%

Sinker

21%

49%

Changeup

14%

53%

Curveball

45%

Cutter

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
65%	26	Top of zone	56	15%
70%	15	In / Glove Side	55	12%
72%	30	Away / Arm Side	52	11%
77%	3	Bottom of zone	66	10%	⭐
77%	18	Middle	65	4%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

65%

Top of zone

15%

70%

In / Glove Side

12%

72%

Away / Arm Side

11%

77%

Bottom of zone

10%

⭐

77%

Middle

⭐

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	44%	48	Below the zone	13	29%
	39%	-3	In / Glove Side	33	27%
	26%	27	Above the zone	24	26%
⭐	25%	68	Away / Arm Side	9	21%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

44%

Below the zone

29%

39%

-3

In / Glove Side

27%

26%

Above the zone

26%

⭐

25%

Away / Arm Side

21%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	63%	28	2 Strikes	28	30%
	49%	14	Batter Behind	30	29%
	53%	22	Batter Ahead	50	27%
	37%	56	First Pitch	44	25%
	63%	70	3 Balls	56	10%
⭐	79%	99	Full Count	48	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

63%

2 Strikes

30%

49%

Batter Behind

29%

53%

Batter Ahead

27%

37%

First Pitch

25%

63%

3 Balls

10%

⭐

79%

Full Count