Matchup Machine

Kevin Kiermaier

Worst 47% of matchups for Clarke Schmidt

Clarke Schmidt

Best 20% of matchups for Kevin Kiermaier

Leans in favor of Kiermaier

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.6%	5.0%	16.0%	6.3%	24.0%
MLB (+/-)	-0.2	+0.8	+2.0	-3.4	-1.3
Kiermaier	+0.3	+0.6	+1.8	-0.9	-2.3
Schmidt	-0.5	+0.7	+0.9	-2.5	-0.4

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.6%

5.0%

16.0%

6.3%

24.0%

MLB (+/-)

-0.2

+0.8

+2.0

-3.4

-1.3

Kiermaier

+0.3

+0.6

+1.8

-0.9

-2.3

Schmidt

-0.5

+0.7

+0.9

-2.5

-0.4

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000
Expected From Contact →			0.16	0.00	0.02	0.14			.040

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Groundout			8%	92%
2023-09-19	Flyout		2%	1%	97%
2023-04-23	Groundout			5%	95%
2023-04-23	Strikeout

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	52%	50	LHB vs RHP	79	51%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

52%

LHB vs RHP

51%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
50%	31	Fastball	35	50%
34%	62	Breaking	100	48%
		------------------
56%	76	Slider	58	28%
63%	-1	Cutter	104	26%	⭐⭐
49%	57	Sinker	27	24%
47%	30	Knuckle-Curve	125	20%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

50%

Fastball

50%

34%

Breaking

100

48%

------------------

56%

Slider

28%

63%

-1

Cutter

104

26%

⭐⭐

49%

Sinker

24%

47%

Knuckle-Curve

125

20%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
73%	27	Bottom of zone	48	15%
67%	47	Away / Arm Side	77	12%
74%	2	Top of zone	32	11%
75%	50	In / Glove Side	39	10%
73%	65	Middle	25	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

73%

Bottom of zone

15%

67%

Away / Arm Side

12%

74%

Top of zone

11%

75%

In / Glove Side

10%

73%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
45%	15	Below the zone	111	36%	⭐⭐
50%	27	In / Glove Side	125	27%	⭐⭐
22%	47	Away / Arm Side	47	23%
30%	48	Above the zone	59	17%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Below the zone

111

36%

⭐⭐

50%

In / Glove Side

125

27%

⭐⭐

22%

Away / Arm Side

23%

30%

Above the zone

17%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
59%	63	2 Strikes	78	32%
57%	82	Batter Behind	61	32%
34%	19	First Pitch	40	26%
56%	40	Batter Ahead	67	24%
59%	55	3 Balls	78	7%
69%	42	Full Count	95	5%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

59%

2 Strikes

32%

57%

Batter Behind

32%

34%

First Pitch

26%

56%

Batter Ahead

24%

59%

3 Balls

69%

Full Count

⭐