Matchup Machine

Aaron Judge

Worst 8% of matchups for Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi

Worst 28% of matchups for Aaron Judge

Strong advantage for Judge

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.6%	4.2%	10.4%	14.0%	34.4%
MLB (+/-)	+1.9	0.0	-3.6	+4.3	+9.2
Judge	-0.3	+0.4	+1.1	-2.6	+3.0
Kikuchi	+1.7	-0.0	-4.6	+6.0	+5.2

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.6%

4.2%

10.4%

14.0%

34.4%

MLB (+/-)

+1.9

0.0

-3.6

+4.3

+9.2

Judge

-0.3

+0.4

+1.1

-2.6

+3.0

Kikuchi

+1.7

-0.0

-4.6

+6.0

+5.2

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	21	17	3	1	0	2	8	4	.176
Expected From Contact →			4.52	1.68	2.02	0.82			.266

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single	7%	63%	24%	6%
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-04-21	Groundout			2%	98%
2023-04-21	Strikeout
2023-04-21	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Walk
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2022-05-10	Flyout	17%	2%		80%
2022-05-10	Single		65%	13%	22%
2022-05-10	Strikeout
2022-05-04	Strikeout
2022-05-04	Strikeout
2022-05-04	Walk
2022-04-12	Flyout	45%	8%		46%
2022-04-12	Groundout			29%	71%
2021-08-08	Groundout		62%	8%	30%
2021-08-08	Strikeout
2021-08-08	Walk
2021-07-07	Home Run	99%
2021-07-07	Groundout			5%	95%
2021-07-07	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	42%	112	RHB vs LHP	88	79%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

42%

112

RHB vs LHP

79%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	32%	86	Breaking	69	45%
	45%	109	Fastball	90	45%
	12%	84	Offspeed	52	10%
			------------------
	45%	107	Four-Seam FB	69	45%
⭐	42%	84	Slider	37	27%
	55%	41	Curveball	80	18%
	39%	72	Changeup	45	10%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

32%

Breaking

45%

109

Fastball

45%

12%

Offspeed

10%

------------------

45%

107

Four-Seam FB

45%

⭐

42%

Slider

27%

55%

Curveball

18%

39%

Changeup

10%

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	67%	97	Bottom of zone	69	14%
	52%	56	Away / Arm Side	100	11%	⭐
	78%	84	Top of zone	77	10%
	75%	88	In / Glove Side	68	10%
⭐⭐	83%	113	Middle	37	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

67%

Bottom of zone

14%

52%

Away / Arm Side

100

11%

⭐

78%

Top of zone

10%

75%

In / Glove Side

10%

⭐⭐

83%

113

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
30%	36	Below the zone	90	35%	⭐
20%	21	Away / Arm Side	53	27%
29%	27	In / Glove Side	118	24%	⭐⭐
26%	30	Above the zone	74	23%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

30%

Below the zone

35%

⭐

20%

Away / Arm Side

27%

29%

In / Glove Side

118

24%

⭐⭐

26%

Above the zone

23%

⭐

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	47%	47	Batter Behind	80	30%
	56%	77	2 Strikes	68	30%
	44%	105	Batter Ahead	84	26%
	35%	112	First Pitch	82	25%
	54%	84	3 Balls	76	7%
⭐	63%	100	Full Count	58	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

47%

Batter Behind

30%

56%

2 Strikes

30%

44%

105

Batter Ahead

26%

35%

112

First Pitch

25%

54%

3 Balls

⭐

63%

100

Full Count