Matchup Machine

Nolan Arenado

Worst 3% of matchups for Trevor Megill

Trevor Megill

Worst 16% of matchups for Nolan Arenado

Strong advantage for Arenado

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.0%	4.7%	17.0%	8.4%	21.3%
MLB (+/-)	+0.2	+0.5	+3.0	-1.3	-3.9
Arenado	-0.3	-0.4	+0.1	+0.7	+6.5
Megill	+0.7	+1.0	+2.5	-2.3	-10.5

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.0%

4.7%

17.0%

8.4%

21.3%

MLB (+/-)

+0.2

+0.5

+3.0

-1.3

-3.9

Arenado

-0.3

-0.4

+0.1

+0.7

+6.5

Megill

+0.7

+1.0

+2.5

-2.3

-10.5

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	4	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	.500
Expected From Contact →			0.78	0.01	0.61	0.16			.389

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Sac Fly		1%		98%
2021-10-02	Walk
2021-09-24	Single		60%	15%	24%
2021-06-12	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	51%	87	RHB vs RHP	97	49%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

51%

RHB vs RHP

49%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	56	Fastball	102	70%	⭐
⭐	35%	101	Breaking	53	30%
			------------------
	45%	93	Four-Seam FB	100	70%
	57%	55	Knuckle-Curve	104	23%	⭐
	55%	78	Slider	38	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

102

70%

⭐

35%

101

Breaking

30%

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

100

70%

57%

Knuckle-Curve

104

23%

⭐

55%

Slider

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
67%	36	Top of zone	103	16%	⭐⭐
65%	69	Away / Glove Side	98	16%
69%	60	Bottom of zone	100	12%
70%	76	In / Arm Side	111	10%
75%	82	Middle	97	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

67%

Top of zone

103

16%

⭐⭐

65%

Away / Glove Side

16%

69%

Bottom of zone

100

12%

70%

In / Arm Side

111

10%

75%

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
⭐	48%	104	Below the zone	51	31%
	41%	95	Away / Glove Side	59	30%
	29%	27	Above the zone	71	24%	⭐
	37%	58	In / Arm Side	35	13%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

⭐

48%

104

Below the zone

31%

41%

Away / Glove Side

30%

29%

Above the zone

24%

⭐

37%

In / Arm Side

13%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
70%	78	2 Strikes	103	34%
58%	103	Batter Behind	102	33%
60%	86	Batter Ahead	96	26%
30%	41	First Pitch	103	23%	⭐⭐
70%	22	3 Balls	93	9%	⭐⭐
81%	5	Full Count	99	6%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

70%

2 Strikes

103

34%

58%

103

Batter Behind

102

33%

60%

Batter Ahead

26%

30%

First Pitch

103

23%

⭐⭐

70%

3 Balls

⭐⭐

81%

Full Count

⭐⭐