Matchup Machine

Elias Diaz

Worst 37% of matchups for Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Worst 14% of matchups for Elias Diaz

Moderate advantage for Snell

- 4

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.8%	3.7%	12.2%	10.2%	31.3%
MLB (+/-)	-0.0	-0.5	-1.7	+0.5	+6.1
Diaz	+0.1	-1.1	-2.3	+1.9	+7.4
Snell	+0.1	+0.1	+0.9	-2.2	-0.8

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.8%

3.7%

12.2%

10.2%

31.3%

MLB (+/-)

-0.0

-0.5

-1.7

+0.5

+6.1

Diaz

+0.1

-1.1

-2.3

+1.9

+7.4

Snell

+0.1

+0.9

-2.2

-0.8

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	15	12	2	1	0	1	4	3	.167
Expected From Contact →			2.67	0.99	0.70	0.97			.222

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Lineout		6%	6%	88%
2023-09-19	Lineout		20%	8%	73%
2023-09-19	Walk
2023-03-30	Groundout		17%	7%	75%
2023-03-30	Walk
2022-08-03	Flyout	3%	16%		80%
2022-08-03	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Single			63%	36%
2022-06-19	Forceout		9%	7%	84%
2021-06-16	Home Run	96%	2%		1%
2021-06-16	Walk
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-18	Strikeout
2021-05-12	Strikeout
2021-05-12	Forceout			4%	96%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	61%	26	RHB vs LHP	107	81%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

61%

RHB vs LHP

107

81%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
53%	30	Fastball	96	49%	⭐⭐
45%	48	Breaking	107	33%	⭐
19%	27	Offspeed	51	18%
		------------------
48%	10	Four-Seam FB	75	49%	⭐
55%	14	Curveball	111	20%	⭐⭐
64%	22	Changeup	50	18%
65%	60	Slider	58	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

53%

Fastball

49%

⭐⭐

45%

Breaking

107

33%

⭐

19%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

48%

Four-Seam FB

49%

⭐

55%

Curveball

111

20%

⭐⭐

64%

Changeup

18%

65%

Slider

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
77%	75	Bottom of zone	125	11%	⭐
78%	-39	Away / Arm Side	125	11%	⭐⭐
80%	8	Top of zone	95	7%	⭐⭐
80%	93	In / Glove Side	87	6%
86%	13	Middle	91	3%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

77%

Bottom of zone

125

11%

⭐

78%

-39

Away / Arm Side

125

11%

⭐⭐

80%

Top of zone

⭐⭐

80%

In / Glove Side

86%

Middle

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
56%	44	Below the zone	74	48%
31%	22	Away / Arm Side	14	31%
68%	60	In / Glove Side	114	26%	⭐
33%	-10	Above the zone	49	19%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

56%

Below the zone

48%

31%

Away / Arm Side

31%

68%

In / Glove Side

114

26%

⭐

33%

-10

Above the zone

19%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
65%	52	Batter Ahead	69	32%
65%	49	2 Strikes	118	29%	⭐⭐
61%	32	Batter Behind	125	25%	⭐⭐
41%	0	First Pitch	99	24%	⭐⭐
67%	65	3 Balls	73	12%
76%	64	Full Count	75	7%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

65%

Batter Ahead

32%

65%

2 Strikes

118

29%

⭐⭐

61%

Batter Behind

125

25%

⭐⭐

41%

First Pitch

24%

⭐⭐

67%

3 Balls

12%

76%

Full Count