Matchup Machine

Bryce Harper

Worst 1% of matchups for Spencer Strider

Spencer Strider

Worst 28% of matchups for Bryce Harper

Strong advantage for Harper

Model Prediction
Prediction	4.2%	4.5%	12.9%	11.5%	27.9%
MLB (+/-)	+1.4	+0.3	-1.0	+1.8	+2.7
Harper	-0.1	+0.3	-1.8	+0.7	+3.7
Strider	+1.6	+0.1	+0.8	+2.1	-3.6

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

4.2%

4.5%

12.9%

11.5%

27.9%

MLB (+/-)

+1.4

+0.3

-1.0

+1.8

+2.7

Harper

-0.1

+0.3

-1.8

+0.7

+3.7

Strider

+1.6

+0.1

+0.8

+2.1

-3.6

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	17	16	3	1	0	2	6	1	.188
Expected From Contact →			4.06	0.80	0.54	2.72			.254

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Double Play
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Home Run	80%	14%	2%	4%
2023-09-13	Strikeout
2023-09-13	Groundout		2%	43%	55%
2023-09-13	Walk
2023-06-20	Single		6%	86%	8%
2023-06-20	Single		3%	89%	8%
2023-06-20	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Strikeout
2023-05-28	Flyout		28%	25%	47%
2023-05-28	Flyout				100%
2022-10-14	Strikeout
2022-09-18	Strikeout
2022-09-18	Groundout			11%	89%
2022-09-18	Flyout				100%
2022-05-25	Groundout			16%	84%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	53%	106	LHB vs RHP	121	54%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

53%

106

LHB vs RHP

121

54%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	106	Fastball	125	59%
	39%	88	Breaking	78	34%
⭐	16%	114	Offspeed	70	7%
			------------------
	45%	107	Four-Seam FB	125	59%
	65%	59	Slider	90	34%
⭐	57%	119	Changeup	65	7%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

106

Fastball

125

59%

39%

Breaking

34%

⭐

16%

114

Offspeed

------------------

45%

107

Four-Seam FB

125

59%

65%

Slider

34%

⭐

57%

119

Changeup

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
84%	87	Top of zone	125	12%
77%	123	Away / Arm Side	125	12%
77%	101	Bottom of zone	93	12%
70%	84	In / Glove Side	100	10%
92%	63	Middle	74	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

84%

Top of zone

125

12%

77%

123

Away / Arm Side

125

12%

77%

101

Bottom of zone

12%

70%

In / Glove Side

100

10%

92%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
50%	97	Below the zone	78	36%
37%	102	Away / Arm Side	112	27%
41%	63	In / Glove Side	101	24%
36%	48	Above the zone	125	23%	⭐⭐

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

50%

Below the zone

36%

37%

102

Away / Arm Side

112

27%

41%

In / Glove Side

101

24%

36%

Above the zone

125

23%

⭐⭐

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
58%	89	Batter Behind	114	35%
62%	93	2 Strikes	100	34%
52%	104	First Pitch	125	24%
46%	102	Batter Ahead	119	23%
50%	100	3 Balls	96	7%
67%	87	Full Count	90	4%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

58%

Batter Behind

114

35%

62%

2 Strikes

100

34%

52%

104

First Pitch

125

24%

46%

102

Batter Ahead

119

23%

50%

100

3 Balls

67%

Full Count