Matchup Machine | Ballpark Pal

Worst 24% of matchups for Zac Gallen

Best 48% of matchups for B. Crawford

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.9%	4.7%	12.0%	9.7%	27.7%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.4	-1.9	0.0	+2.6
Crawford	+0.3	+0.3	+0.4	-0.9	-0.7
Gallen	+0.6	+0.3	-2.3	+1.8	+1.6

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	18	18	4	1	0	3	4	0	.222
Expected From Contact →			3.65	0.81	0.56	2.28			.203

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Strikeout
2023-09-19	Single			2%	97%
2023-08-01	Single		5%	13%	82%
2023-08-01	Home Run	81%	7%		13%
2023-08-01	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-08-18	Lineout		4%	43%	53%
2022-08-18	Strikeout
2022-08-18	Strikeout
2022-07-13	Groundout		1%	1%	97%
2022-07-13	GIDP		17%	40%	43%
2021-08-10	Flyout				99%
2021-08-10	Groundout			8%	92%
2021-08-10	Strikeout
2021-08-04	Flyout				99%
2021-08-04	Groundout			38%	61%
2021-08-04	Lineout		7%	27%	66%
2021-07-02	Groundout			4%	96%
2021-07-02	Single		14%	44%	41%
2020-09-07	Lineout	1%	8%	2%	88%
2020-09-07	Strikeout
2020-08-28	Lineout			86%	14%
2020-08-28	Pop Out				100%
2020-08-28	Single			59%	41%
2020-08-22	Groundout			4%	96%
2020-08-22	Walk

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
54%	64	Fastball	82	62%
26%	-3	Breaking	59	24%
20%	-1	Offspeed	94	14%	⭐⭐
		------------------
56%	72	Four-Seam FB	63	49%
54%	15	Knuckle-Curve	112	23%	⭐⭐
56%	1	Changeup	100	14%	⭐⭐
46%	32	Cutter	66	13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
73%	9	Bottom of zone	65	13%	⭐
66%	2	Away / Arm Side	79	11%	⭐
85%	55	Top of zone	68	10%
83%	10	In / Glove Side	43	8%
86%	76	Middle	47	4%

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
48%	-3	Below the zone	95	41%	⭐⭐
25%	44	Away / Arm Side	107	26%	⭐⭐
45%	0	In / Glove Side	70	24%	⭐
34%	87	Above the zone	85	18%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
64%	38	2 Strikes	93	31%	⭐
55%	38	Batter Behind	90	31%	⭐
45%	50	First Pitch	74	26%
54%	43	Batter Ahead	95	24%	⭐
59%	69	3 Balls	105	7%
74%	88	Full Count	104	5%

Model Prediction
	HR	2B / 3B	1B	BB	K
Prediction	3.9%	4.7%	12.0%	9.7%	27.7%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.4	-1.9	0.0	+2.6
Crawford	+0.3	+0.3	+0.4	-0.9	-0.7
Gallen	+0.6	+0.3	-2.3	+1.8	+1.6