Matchup Machine

Michael Brantley

Worst 20% of matchups for Kyle Gibson

Kyle Gibson

Worst 49% of matchups for M. Brantley

Strong advantage for Brantley

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.2%	5.1%	18.1%	7.6%	14.5%
MLB (+/-)	-0.6	+0.9	+4.1	-2.1	-10.7
Brantley	+0.2	+0.4	+1.1	-1.6	-0.8
Gibson	-1.1	+0.3	+2.7	-0.6	-7.0

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.2%

5.1%

18.1%

7.6%

14.5%

MLB (+/-)

-0.6

+0.9

+4.1

-2.1

-10.7

Brantley

+0.2

+0.4

+1.1

-1.6

-0.8

Gibson

-1.1

+0.3

+2.7

-0.6

-7.0

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	12	9	4	0	0	4	1	3	.444
Expected From Contact →			3.16	0.00	0.07	3.09			.351

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-07-24	Strikeout
2021-07-24	Walk
2021-06-15	Groundout			2%	98%
2021-06-15	Single		2%	56%	42%
2021-06-15	Single			4%	96%
2021-05-21	Single			87%	12%
2021-05-21	Groundout			6%	94%
2021-05-21	Walk
2021-05-16	Groundout			12%	87%
2021-05-16	Single		3%	61%	35%
2021-05-16	Lineout			79%	21%
2020-09-16	Groundout		2%	4%	94%
2020-09-16	Lineout		3%	3%	95%
2020-09-16	Strikeout
2020-09-16	Groundout			8%	92%

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	42%	55	LHB vs RHP	12	48%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

42%

LHB vs RHP

48%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	44%	57	Fastball	16	56%
	7%	49	Breaking	56	27%
	10%	35	Offspeed	43	17%
			------------------
	38%	35	Sinker	29	26%
	32%	33	Slider	58	19%
⭐	54%	68	Cutter	21	18%
	44%	31	Changeup	38	17%
	46%	51	Four-Seam FB	30	12%
	15%	55	Curveball	48	8%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

44%

Fastball

56%

Breaking

27%

10%

Offspeed

17%

------------------

38%

Sinker

26%

32%

Slider

19%

⭐

54%

Cutter

18%

44%

Changeup

17%

46%

Four-Seam FB

12%

15%

Curveball

	Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
	58%	28	Bottom of zone	19	14%
	61%	28	Away / Arm Side	-4	11%
⭐	52%	75	In / Glove Side	22	10%
	51%	35	Top of zone	21	9%
	72%	44	Middle	33	4%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

58%

Bottom of zone

14%

61%

Away / Arm Side

-4

11%

⭐

52%

In / Glove Side

10%

51%

Top of zone

72%

Middle

Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
25%	41	Below the zone	50	44%
13%	33	In / Glove Side	37	26%
19%	49	Away / Arm Side	52	24%
34%	45	Above the zone	24	16%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

25%

Below the zone

44%

13%

In / Glove Side

26%

19%

Away / Arm Side

24%

34%

Above the zone

16%

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
53%	41	Batter Ahead	2	28%
58%	59	2 Strikes	37	27%
40%	58	Batter Behind	56	26%
12%	14	First Pitch	24	26%
70%	40	3 Balls	0	8%
82%	41	Full Count	-20	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

53%

Batter Ahead

28%

58%

2 Strikes

27%

40%

Batter Behind

26%

12%

First Pitch

26%

70%

3 Balls

82%

Full Count

-20