Matchup Machine

Justin Turner

Worst 6% of matchups for Nathan Eovaldi

Nathan Eovaldi

Best 27% of matchups for Justin Turner

Extreme advantage for Turner

Model Prediction
Prediction	3.9%	5.0%	11.7%	12.3%	14.1%
MLB (+/-)	+1.1	+0.7	-2.3	+2.6	-11.2
Turner	+0.1	+0.4	-1.4	+1.5	-4.9
Eovaldi	+0.8	+0.7	-1.1	+1.0	-6.1

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

3.9%

5.0%

11.7%

12.3%

14.1%

MLB (+/-)

+1.1

+0.7

-2.3

+2.6

-11.2

Turner

+0.1

+0.4

-1.4

+1.5

-4.9

Eovaldi

+0.8

+0.7

-1.1

+1.0

-6.1

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	6	5	2	0	0	2	0	1	.400
Expected From Contact →			2.64	0.00	0.11	2.53			.527

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-09-19	Single		6%	65%	29%
2023-09-19	Groundout		2%	44%	54%
2023-09-19	Groundout			30%	70%
2023-07-06	Single		2%	86%	12%
2023-07-06	Groundout			29%	71%
2023-07-06	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	47%	43	RHB vs RHP	48	56%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

47%

RHB vs RHP

56%

	Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
	47%	24	Fastball	43	55%
	6%	51	Offspeed	90	27%
⭐	23%	76	Breaking	25	18%
			------------------
	45%	31	Four-Seam FB	25	37%
	41%	53	Splitter	99	27%	⭐
	52%	1	Cutter	30	17%
⭐⭐	43%	105	Curveball	32	14%
	54%	42	Slider	19	5%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

47%

Fastball

55%

Offspeed

27%

⭐

23%

Breaking

18%

------------------

45%

Four-Seam FB

37%

41%

Splitter

27%

⭐

52%

Cutter

17%

⭐⭐

43%

105

Curveball

14%

54%

Slider

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
62%	45	Bottom of zone	29	15%
58%	89	Away / Glove Side	67	12%
67%	13	In / Arm Side	34	9%
68%	40	Top of zone	45	8%
74%	-8	Middle	36	6%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

62%

Bottom of zone

15%

58%

Away / Glove Side

12%

67%

In / Arm Side

68%

Top of zone

74%

-8

Middle

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	36%	88	Below the zone	52	42%
	33%	75	Away / Glove Side	38	37%
⭐	40%	100	In / Arm Side	56	19%
	38%	22	Above the zone	41	15%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

36%

Below the zone

42%

33%

Away / Glove Side

37%

⭐

40%

100

In / Arm Side

19%

38%

Above the zone

15%

	Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
	65%	73	2 Strikes	36	30%
⭐	54%	92	Batter Behind	46	29%
	55%	37	Batter Ahead	27	27%
	22%	19	First Pitch	42	26%
	64%	15	3 Balls	10	8%
	74%	16	Full Count	-24	5%

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

65%

2 Strikes

30%

⭐

54%

Batter Behind

29%

55%

Batter Ahead

27%

22%

First Pitch

26%

64%

3 Balls

74%

Full Count

-24