Matchup Machine

Charlie Blackmon

Worst 15% of matchups for Blake Snell

Blake Snell

Worst 19% of matchups for C. Blackmon

Leans in favor of Blackmon

Model Prediction
Prediction	2.3%	4.3%	12.8%	11.3%	23.2%
MLB (+/-)	-0.5	+0.0	-1.2	+1.6	-2.0
Blackmon	-0.2	-0.2	-2.4	+2.7	+5.4
Snell	-0.3	+0.6	+1.5	-1.0	-8.9

Model Prediction

2B / 3B

Prediction

2.3%

4.3%

12.8%

11.3%

23.2%

MLB (+/-)

-0.5

+0.0

-1.2

+1.6

-2.0

Blackmon

-0.2

-2.4

+2.7

+5.4

Snell

-0.3

+0.6

+1.5

-1.0

-8.9

Expected From Contact: A model predicts the outcome of every ball hit in play based on how it leaves the bat (exit velocity, launch angle, direction, and batter handedness). This helps control for luck, weather, and the park the hitter was in.

History (Last 3 Years)
	PA	AB	H	HR	2/3B	1B	K	BB	Avg
Actual	14	13	5	0	2	3	3	1	.385
Expected From Contact →			4.76	0.16	1.34	3.27			.366

		Expected From Contact
Date	Outcome	HR	2/3B	1B	Out
2023-03-30	Single			50%	49%
2023-03-30	Double		24%	55%	21%
2023-03-30	Single			63%	37%
2022-08-03	Groundout			4%	96%
2022-08-03	Groundout		1%	42%	57%
2022-08-03	Sac Fly		7%	15%	78%
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2022-06-19	Strikeout
2021-05-18	Double		70%	8%	22%
2021-05-18	Flyout	16%	27%		56%
2021-05-18	Lineout		3%	4%	93%
2021-05-12	Single			85%	14%
2021-05-12	Walk

	Swing	Grade	Handedness	Grade	Freq
	45%	71	LHB vs LHP	85	19%

Swing

Grade

Handedness

Grade

Freq

45%

LHB vs LHP

19%

Swing	Grade	Pitch Type	Grade	Freq
43%	45	Fastball	96	49%	⭐
23%	93	Breaking	107	33%
13%	41	Offspeed	51	18%
		------------------
43%	33	Four-Seam FB	75	49%	⭐
55%	35	Curveball	111	20%	⭐⭐
57%	32	Changeup	50	18%
58%	92	Slider	58	13%

Swing

Grade

Pitch Type

Grade

Freq

43%

Fastball

49%

⭐

23%

Breaking

107

33%

13%

Offspeed

18%

------------------

43%

Four-Seam FB

49%

⭐

55%

Curveball

111

20%

⭐⭐

57%

Changeup

18%

58%

Slider

13%

Swing	Grade	Location (in zone)	Grade	Freq
52%	21	Away / Glove Side	89	12%	⭐⭐
68%	43	Bottom of zone	125	11%	⭐⭐
65%	34	Top of zone	95	7%	⭐⭐
67%	42	Middle	125	6%	⭐⭐
61%	53	In / Arm Side	89	5%

Swing

Grade

Location (in zone)

Grade

Freq

52%

Away / Glove Side

12%

⭐⭐

68%

Bottom of zone

125

11%

⭐⭐

65%

Top of zone

⭐⭐

67%

Middle

125

⭐⭐

61%

In / Arm Side

	Swing	Grade	Location (out of zone)	Grade	Freq
	45%	72	Below the zone	74	48%
	28%	43	Away / Glove Side	52	44%
	28%	50	Above the zone	49	19%
⭐⭐	40%	100	In / Arm Side	19	8%

Swing

Grade

Location (out of zone)

Grade

Freq

45%

Below the zone

48%

28%

Away / Glove Side

44%

28%

Above the zone

19%

⭐⭐

40%

100

In / Arm Side

Swing	Grade	Count	Grade	Freq
52%	54	Batter Ahead	69	32%
68%	52	2 Strikes	118	29%	⭐⭐
59%	89	Batter Behind	125	25%
24%	25	First Pitch	99	24%	⭐⭐
54%	49	3 Balls	73	12%
72%	32	Full Count	75	7%	⭐

Swing

Grade

Count

Grade

Freq

52%

Batter Ahead

32%

68%

2 Strikes

118

29%

⭐⭐

59%

Batter Behind

125

25%

24%

First Pitch

24%

⭐⭐

54%

3 Balls

12%

72%

Full Count

⭐