Last Updated: 11:18 PM
Ballpark Pal simulates every game thousands of times. Below is a summary of the sim outcomes related specifically to home runs.
Projected Home Run Totals
36.4 HRs over 15 games
| Park | Total | Away | HRs | Home | HRs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute Maid Park | 3.07 | BAL | 1.62 | HOU | 1.45 | ||
| Globe Life Field | 2.76 | BOS | 1.34 | TEX | 1.42 | ||
| Truist Park | 2.75 | PHI | 1.35 | ATL | 1.40 | ||
| Great American BP | 2.73 | MIN | 1.24 | CIN | 1.49 | ||
| Yankee Stadium | 2.62 | TOR | 1.18 | NYY | 1.45 | ||
| Dodger Stadium | 2.59 | DET | 1.17 | LAD | 1.42 | ||
| Petco Park | 2.51 | COL | 1.16 | SD | 1.35 | ||
| Wrigley Field | 2.48 | PIT | 1.25 | CHC | 1.23 | ||
| Tropicana Field | 2.35 | LAA | 1.14 | TB | 1.21 | ||
| Oakland Coliseum | 2.29 | SEA | 1.29 | OAK | 1.00 | ||
| LoanDepot Park | 2.29 | NYM | 1.14 | MIA | 1.15 | ||
| Nationals Park | 2.23 | CHW | 1.21 | WAS | 1.02 | ||
| Chase Field | 2.09 | SF | 1.14 | ARI | 0.95 | ||
| Busch Stadium | 1.88 | MIL | 0.98 | STL | 0.90 | ||
| Kauffman Stadium | 1.81 | CLE | 0.77 | KC | 1.05 |
Probability Distribution
| Park | Avg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minute Maid Park | 3.07 | 5% | 14% | 22% | 22% | 17% | 20% | |
| Globe Life Field | 2.76 | 6% | 18% | 24% | 21% | 16% | 15% | |
| Truist Park | 2.75 | 7% | 18% | 24% | 22% | 14% | 15% | |
| Great American BP | 2.73 | 7% | 18% | 24% | 22% | 15% | 14% | |
| Yankee Stadium | 2.62 | 8% | 18% | 26% | 21% | 15% | 12% | |
| Dodger Stadium | 2.59 | 8% | 19% | 25% | 22% | 14% | 12% | |
| Petco Park | 2.51 | 8% | 22% | 25% | 21% | 13% | 11% | |
| Wrigley Field | 2.48 | 8% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 10% | |
| Tropicana Field | 2.35 | 9% | 22% | 27% | 21% | 12% | 9% | |
| Oakland Coliseum | 2.29 | 11% | 25% | 25% | 19% | 12% | 9% | |
| LoanDepot Park | 2.29 | 11% | 22% | 27% | 20% | 12% | 8% | |
| Nationals Park | 2.23 | 12% | 24% | 25% | 20% | 11% | 8% | |
| Chase Field | 2.09 | 13% | 27% | 25% | 18% | 10% | 7% | |
| Busch Stadium | 1.88 | 15% | 29% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 5% | |
| Kauffman Stadium | 1.81 | 17% | 29% | 25% | 17% | 7% | 4% |
Top 25 Most Likely Hitters
| Team | Batter | Park | Opp | Pitcher | Prob % | Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Gunnar Henderson | HOU | HOU | 10 | Javier | 28.6% | +249 |
| LAD | Max Muncy | LAD | DET | 10 | Olson | 25.4% | +293 |
| HOU | Yordan Alvarez | HOU | BAL | 9 | Bradish | 24.8% | +303 |
| BAL | Anthony Santander | HOU | HOU | 8 | Javier | 23.9% | +318 |
| NYY | Aaron Judge | NYY | TOR | 7 | Gausman | 23.7% | +321 |
| ATL | Marcell Ozuna | ATL | PHI | 9 | Nola | 22.5% | +344 |
| SD | Fernando Tatis Jr. | SD | COL | 10 | Anderson | 22.0% | +354 |
| LAA | Logan O'Hoppe | TB | TB | -2 | Civale | 22.0% | +354 |
| PHI | Kyle Schwarber | ATL | ATL | 10 | Elder | 21.7% | +360 |
| LAD | J.D. Martinez | LAD | DET | 6 | Olson | 21.6% | +362 |
| TEX | Adolis Garcia | TEX | BOS | 7 | Bello | 21.6% | +362 |
| MIN | Royce Lewis | CIN | CIN | 1 | Greene | 21.3% | +369 |
| TEX | Corey Seager | TEX | BOS | 10 | Bello | 20.8% | +380 |
| BAL | Ryan O'Hearn | HOU | HOU | 10 | Javier | 20.7% | +383 |
| CHW | Luis Robert | WAS | WAS | 10 | Gray | 20.4% | +390 |
| BOS | Rafael Devers | TEX | TEX | 7 | Gray | 20.0% | +400 |
| DET | Kerry Carpenter | LAD | LAD | 4 | Miller | 19.9% | +402 |
| PHI | Trea Turner | ATL | ATL | 10 | Elder | 19.7% | +407 |
| NYM | Pete Alonso | MIA | MIA | -3 | Perez | 19.6% | +410 |
| DET | Spencer Torkelson | LAD | LAD | 4 | Miller | 19.5% | +412 |
| BAL | Cedric Mullins | HOU | HOU | 4 | Javier | 19.5% | +412 |
| HOU | Kyle Tucker | HOU | BAL | 9 | Bradish | 19.4% | +415 |
| SD | Manny Machado | SD | COL | 10 | Anderson | 19.2% | +420 |
| NYM | DJ Stewart | MIA | MIA | -4 | Perez | 19.2% | +420 |
| LAD | Mookie Betts | LAD | DET | 9 | Olson | 19.0% | +426 |