Last Updated: 06:49 PM
Ballpark Pal simulates every game thousands of times. Below is a summary of the sim outcomes related specifically to home runs.
Projected Home Run Totals
37.3 HRs over 16 games
| Park | Total | Away | HRs | Home | HRs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field | 3.14 | LAD | 1.77 | COL | 1.38 | ||
| Angel Stadium | 3.07 | TEX | 1.78 | LAA | 1.29 | ||
| Citi Field 4:15 | 2.80 | MIA | 1.26 | NYM | 1.53 | ||
| Rogers Centre | 2.61 | NYY | 1.37 | TOR | 1.24 | ||
| Truist Park | 2.57 | CHC | 0.97 | ATL | 1.60 | ||
| T-Mobile Park | 2.53 | HOU | 1.07 | SEA | 1.46 | ||
| Target Field | 2.48 | OAK | 1.25 | MIN | 1.23 | ||
| Citi Field 4:10 | 2.43 | MIA | 1.30 | NYM | 1.13 | ||
| Guaranteed Rate Fld | 2.20 | ARI | 1.20 | CHW | 1.00 | ||
| Progressive Field | 2.15 | CIN | 1.34 | CLE | 0.81 | ||
| American Family Fld | 2.08 | STL | 0.86 | MIL | 1.22 | ||
| Citizens Bank Park | 1.99 | PIT | 1.12 | PHI | 0.86 | ||
| Oriole Park | 1.89 | WAS | 0.75 | BAL | 1.15 | ||
| Oracle Park | 1.87 | SD | 1.03 | SF | 0.84 | ||
| Comerica Park | 1.80 | KC | 0.86 | DET | 0.94 | ||
| Fenway Park | 1.67 | TB | 0.80 | BOS | 0.87 |
Probability Distribution
| Park | Avg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field | 3.14 | 5% | 14% | 20% | 22% | 18% | 21% | |
| Angel Stadium | 3.07 | 5% | 15% | 22% | 22% | 16% | 20% | |
| Citi Field 4:15 | 2.80 | 6% | 17% | 23% | 23% | 15% | 15% | |
| Rogers Centre | 2.61 | 8% | 20% | 24% | 21% | 15% | 12% | |
| Truist Park | 2.57 | 8% | 20% | 24% | 21% | 13% | 13% | |
| T-Mobile Park | 2.53 | 8% | 21% | 25% | 21% | 14% | 11% | |
| Target Field | 2.48 | 8% | 20% | 27% | 21% | 12% | 11% | |
| Citi Field 4:10 | 2.43 | 9% | 21% | 26% | 21% | 12% | 10% | |
| Guaranteed Rate Fld | 2.20 | 11% | 24% | 27% | 20% | 10% | 7% | |
| Progressive Field | 2.15 | 12% | 25% | 27% | 19% | 10% | 7% | |
| American Family Fld | 2.08 | 13% | 26% | 27% | 18% | 9% | 7% | |
| Citizens Bank Park | 1.99 | 15% | 26% | 26% | 18% | 9% | 5% | |
| Oriole Park | 1.89 | 15% | 28% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | |
| Oracle Park | 1.87 | 16% | 29% | 25% | 16% | 8% | 5% | |
| Comerica Park | 1.80 | 16% | 31% | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | |
| Fenway Park | 1.67 | 19% | 31% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% |
Top 25 Most Likely Hitters