Sim Accuracy

Ballpark Pal simulations generate detailed projections of every game. The tables below give insight into how the sims have related to actual results. Differences can be due to randomness or model oversights. Naturally, smaller samples are associated with larger differences. Models are generally left alone, but sometimes tweaked to adjust for clear differences that occur during the season.

Median Dif = the median game-to-game difference.
Abs = the median game-to-game difference, ignoring the direction of the error (absolute value).

Overall
Simulated runs have been 0% lower than actual (-78 runs over 2,352 games)
Totals Difference % Dif Median Dif
Actual Sim # % Away Home Median Abs
Runs21,55121,473-780%-2%1%0.403.07
Hits39,58639,157-429-1%-1%-1%0.133.26
1B25,22324,583-640-3%-3%-2%-0.002.50
2B/3B8,6628,8752132%2%3%0.361.38
HR5,7015,699-20%0%0%0.191.08
BB17,82717,394-433-2%-4%-1%1.192.19
K40,46440,8313671%0%2%0.272.62
Sim is lower than actuals    Sim is higher than actuals
Team Park Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs
HOUMinute Maid Park81742741-10%-0.293.213721315-57-4%-0.653.07877796-81-9%-0.652.83301298-3-1%0.451.441942222814%0.570.93618608-10-2%1.112.213541432786%1.632.4
OAKOakland Coliseum81707650-57-8%-0.242.812801253-27-2%0.273.01801790-11-1%0.521.74304303-10%0.521.47175160-15-9%0.111.01715592-123-17%-0.092.0914431414-29-2%-0.472.6
CLEProgressive Field8062273811619%2.13.3113111369584%0.993.67863859-40%0.022.18320331113%0.311.461281795140%0.871.21582564-18-3%1.172.3212471319726%0.662.36
MINTarget Field79704674-30-4%0.553.2112871284-30%-0.392.86767809426%0.521.7311304-7-2%0.171.03209172-37-18%-0.321.11597564-33-5%1.172.0115701498-72-5%-0.442.62
PHICitizens Bank Park79723764416%0.292.2613011346453%0.842.18798817192%0.692.22290302124%0.571.65213226136%0.311.01571587163%1.152.1814461431-15-1%-0.283.11
ATLTruist Park76780726-54-7%-0.432.4213361288-48-4%03835813-22-3%-0.292.55263282197%0.31.13238193-45-19%-0.361.03558581234%1.282.1613661308-58-4%-1.122.38
CINGreat American BP81791816253%0.58313731404312%0.813.45843841-20%0.352.432873233613%0.711.59243239-4-2%0.091.03680629-51-7%1.22.3214321451191%0.52.73
ARIChase Field78711746355%0.993.0513561346-10-1%0.553.85862834-28-3%-0.422.93338335-3-1%0.251.411561772114%0.491.19574590163%1.52.3212791277-20%-0.032.89
DETComerica Park76684662-22-3%-0.433.3212531267141%0.543.04826843172%0.243.03261275145%0.21.37166148-18-11%-0.141.12531543122%1.28213381285-53-4%-1.012.53
TBATropicana Field81741706-35-5%-0.53.031291129430%0.273.6278579491%0.272.64305299-6-2%0.341.620120100%0.030.86562560-20%1.141.831522152750%-0.283.49
KCAKauffman Stadium78779726-53-7%-0.673.3514021382-20-1%0.063.27894915212%0.522.03329314-15-4%0.161.43179153-26-14%-0.21.01599549-50-8%0.961.9912131267544%0.952.79
SEAT-Mobile Park76630608-22-4%0.22.9411751142-33-3%-0.562.86747716-31-4%0.182.5253237-16-6%-0.051.2175189148%0.431.22539523-16-3%1.272.1314761383-93-6%-1.112.41
SLNBusch Stadium76732664-68-9%-0.463.0414001239-161-12%-1.243.23929805-124-13%-1.732.5292266-26-9%0.021.45179168-11-6%0.040.81588564-24-4%12.1511741188141%0.612.69
MILAmerican Family Fld75643672294%1.13.211461174282%0.752.59730713-17-2%0.242.112322653314%0.821.4184196126%0.250.77576593173%1.172.2213821295-87-6%-1.112.39
SDNPetco Park796306996911%1.283.261230123550%0.863.94793774-19-2%0.452.5526726811%0.421.191701932313%0.560.99659632-27-4%1.552.1913321407756%0.682.41
BOSFenway Park79806756-50-6%02.815021409-93-6%-0.873.48935882-53-6%-0.062.4382359-23-6%-0.171.39185168-17-9%0.051.12611587-24-4%1.652.4713191373544%1.072.2
WASNationals Park80780746-34-4%0.052.6914801415-65-4%-0.373.55996914-82-8%-0.953.06292317258%0.511.5192184-8-4%0.051586555-31-5%1.272.121100124414413%1.692.62
CHAGuaranteed Rate Fld76697694-30%0.793.0212901266-24-2%-0.174.03862815-47-5%-0.122.89242252104%0.291.1186199137%0.561.12573546-27-5%1.222.1313871305-82-6%-1.162.28
BALOriole Park766657326710%1.113.2612771328514%1.053.7984484840%0.373.16264289259%0.831.31691912213%0.351.164945586413%1.862.4412371293565%13.14
SD Estadio Alfredo H.H.23731-6-15%-2.8211.314944-5-10%-2.437.97212214%0.470.471310-3-24%-1.393.191512-3-18%-1.345.092015-5-24%-0.367.364736-11-24%-5.535.53
COLCoors Field75871821-50-6%-0.633.5915051413-92-6%-1.374946846-100-11%-1.662.97376350-26-7%0.321.491832163318%0.561.03561538-23-4%1.282.1911891210212%0.381.9
SFNOracle Park77607636295%1.322.7312601279192%0.323.07854849-5-1%0.332.052532903715%0.561.36153140-13-9%-0.120.854795365712%1.912.1612901351615%0.82.56
TEXGlobe Life Field81864728-136-16%-1.23.7414361327-109-8%-0.73.32871856-15-2%0.272.11309264-45-14%-0.071.17256207-49-19%-0.531.25625580-45-7%0.711.9813881375-13-1%0.132.3
PITPNC Park7872573051%-0.182.2713011323222%0.912.71838820-18-2%02.33321335144%0.211.321421692719%0.420.93636623-13-2%1.392.4512941374806%1.113.02
NYAYankee Stadium81673732599%1.252.6212321299675%1.062.74756807517%1.342.642452692410%0.541.28231222-9-4%-0.091.29592622305%1.631.9714091463544%0.922.44
ANAAngel Stadium77738694-44-6%-0.123.9212861236-50-4%-0.474.07823769-54-7%-0.363.43247262156%0.31.11216205-11-5%0.311.46648571-77-12%0.352.2114801430-50-3%-0.272.82
TORRogers Centre7660772211519%2.013.3112031284817%1.132.6767766-10%-0.142.52673195219%0.971.721692003118%0.551.21602575-27-4%0.632.3313371371343%0.683.08
MIALoanDepot Park81696710142%1.113.114131336-77-5%-0.473.13934845-89-10%-1.012.2231231752%0.251.4416717474%0.351.05554578244%1.662.913621427655%0.962.66
LANDodger Stadium81735750152%0.683.0312881330423%-0.063.7772817456%0.632.25278290124%0.031.51238224-14-6%0.21.28631594-37-6%0.871.9913801418383%0.562.73
CHNWrigley Field81787726-61-8%0.293.2913911320-71-5%-0.263.42903841-62-7%-0.072.7729029773%0.641.48198182-16-8%0.131.1602641396%1.42.111384139170%0.672.55
NYNCiti Field74630662325%1.653.3111441192484%1.072.46739753142%0.342.282152483315%0.51.2919019000%0.311.17649587-62-10%1.182.081270127660%0.172.56
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
MIA1566347067211%12.0813731332-41-3%-0.172.02940857-83-9%-0.671.942703033312%0.550.8616317296%0.140.844785406213%1.321.7412371274373%0.372.028180.2-0.8-1.000000%
KC157646702569%0.752.2312771334574%0.642.61826853273%0.161.77295305103%0.460.911561762013%0.250.9483516337%1.051.371352135971%-0.312.025471.917.933.000000%
OAK1565566145810%0.982.0811441194504%0.632.13742758162%0.271.332382733515%0.550.81164163-10%0.110.87570541-29-5%0.51.5314361460242%0.261.944767.420.443.000000%
ATL156900796-104-12%-0.441.8914861361-125-8%-0.612.09883834-49-5%0.131.7930330300%0.030.88300223-77-26%-0.340.71602615132%0.881.312401270302%0.241.889987-12-12.000000%
MIL15669870681%0.512.2612411239-20%0.611.91821765-56-7%0.151.44259279208%0.530.811611953421%0.30.9632643112%0.591.4413621385232%0.181.98879.3-8.7-10.000000%
MIN157741694-47-6%0.422.2812841273-11-1%0.512.29780792122%0.391.79280291114%0.380.87224190-34-15%0.030.92672580-92-14%0.331.216081487-121-8%-0.521.688480.8-3.2-4.000000%
TEX157861741-120-14%-0.142.3414411306-135-9%-0.32.18873820-53-6%-0.21.7340282-58-17%-0.260.88228205-23-10%0.10.76646613-33-5%0.531.4313621322-40-3%0.061.818883.2-4.8-6.000000%
NYY1576457177211%0.832.13116312681059%0.682.37720784649%0.681.742272775022%0.560.76216207-9-4%0.090.960561271%0.731.6813741424504%0.61.98808000.000000%
LAA158718706-12-2%0.662.113211259-62-5%-0.212.09825771-54-7%0.081.5327027331%0.380.64226215-11-5%0.210.72607579-28-5%0.741.2714921513211%0.32.027178.17.110.000000%
DET1576207048414%0.942.2112451320756%0.932.12827856294%0.481.782602953514%0.490.97158168106%0.220.88540576367%0.911.6714411353-88-6%-0.512.13747845.000000%
STL155685703183%0.712.1413151277-38-3%-0.072.14847805-42-5%-0.111.72261283228%0.130.75207189-18-9%0.090.91626580-46-7%0.311.5212771298212%0.271.836874.56.510.000000%
BOS156753740-13-2%0.332.3214031356-47-3%0.091.99872848-24-3%0.261.73352330-22-6%0.080.9179177-2-1%0.190.75557596397%0.971.4613141326121%0.221.77581.86.89.000000%
HOU158806737-69-9%-0.222.4914061346-60-4%-0.052.24896838-58-6%0.071.87293306135%0.140.89217202-15-7%0.250.88627558-69-11%0.291.5112081276686%0.571.748682.5-3.5-4.000000%
CIN158738727-11-1%0.112.1113241309-15-1%0.12.1845806-39-5%-0.061.66290304145%0.590.95189199105%0.270.72648591-57-9%0.491.4614621457-50%0.182.048174.8-6.2-8.000000%
TB158824708-116-14%-0.152.213881288-100-7%-0.262.37870800-70-8%0.081.74295293-2-1%0.10.9223195-28-12%0.150.83600573-27-5%0.681.413901456665%0.42.189683.4-12.6-13.000000%
CLE158639693548%1.041.9613411358171%0.42.32905902-30%0.221.99315308-7-2%0.190.991211492823%0.410.86553528-25-5%0.721.621111124213112%1.061.857477.13.14.000000%
NYM155683704213%0.62.3812331295625%0.832.49793824314%0.561.932352804519%0.60.92205191-14-7%0.090.91620570-50-8%0.671.3112671277101%0.221.92717657.000000%
SD158729747182%12.4112821298161%0.372.2479880681%0.371.51280290104%0.30.86204202-2-1%0.190.87706647-59-8%0.371.4912711361907%0.651.887884.86.89.000000%
WAS157660676162%0.261.713521350-20%0.21.76911884-27-3%0.051.4529530383%0.40.991461621611%0.150.87494486-8-2%0.641.4111312171049%0.541.746867.8-0.20.000000%
ARI157738732-6-1%0.171.7913371355181%02.06860870101%0.141.8531131541%0.141.0316617042%0.120.9587578-9-2%0.511.4612161232161%0.231.668378.7-4.3-5.000000%
BAL157785748-37-5%-0.082.3613751345-30-2%0.032.37863847-16-2%0.251.76331298-33-10%-0.161.041812001911%0.320.89556583275%0.791.5413251318-7-1%0.072.039881.8-16.2-17.000000%
TOR157703752497%0.611.8213731368-50%0.182.05894853-41-5%-0.151.75299324258%0.181180190106%0.210.8616581-35-6%0.61.5312641297333%0.251.828780.5-6.5-7.000000%
PHI15675976120%0.311.9413721325-47-3%0.12.11850798-52-6%-0.011.72310306-4-1%0.070.84212222105%0.220.71610586-24-4%0.611.5414251382-43-3%-0.352.288883.1-4.9-6.000000%
PIT157672687152%0.792.3212461267212%0.732.05783798152%0.441.77304303-10%0.310.8615916785%0.190.9606617112%0.91.6914091448393%0.311.897473.3-0.7-1.000000%
COL156677710335%0.811.913081322141%0.181.96837812-25-3%0.121.84321320-10%0.2811501904027%0.380.77496516204%0.71.2214761433-43-3%-0.331.715663.77.714.000000%
CHC155780714-66-9%0.252.0813411265-76-6%-0.342.27874797-77-9%-0.131.74281293124%0.510.91186176-10-5%0.10.83633648152%0.861.5213251308-17-1%-0.121.858178.6-2.4-3.000000%
SEA157735711-24-3%0.21.8213001238-62-5%-0.22.21805755-50-6%-0.121.7291271-20-7%-0.050.7520421284%0.280.69653630-23-3%0.651.3915511463-88-6%-0.651.828590.15.16.000000%
CHW156616666508%0.82.0612721298262%0.32.6183784581%0.461.8226927121%0.210.881661821610%0.190.824324885613%1.071.5313601343-17-1%0.342.235968.39.316.000000%
LAD157877781-96-11%-0.412.3313771331-46-3%-0.22.18818802-16-2%0.091.84318300-18-6%-0.020.96241228-13-5%0.170.75738625-113-15%0.021.3813231354312%0.161.859789.5-7.5-8.000000%
SF157659677183%0.422.212501263131%0.12.52816792-24-3%0.071.62662922610%0.540.91168179116%0.190.84619591-28-5%0.451.4114561483272%0.121.997775.1-1.9-2.000000%
Team Games Runs Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Hits Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 1B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs 2B/3B Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs HR Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs BB Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs K Sim Dif % Dif Med Abs Wins Sim Dif % Dif
MIA156689685-4-1%0.371.9212931270-23-2%0.162.06798797-10%0.31.47309295-14-5%-0.010.85186179-7-4%0.160.87583573-10-2%0.941.6614271451242%0.31.937575.80.81.000000%
KC157824764-60-7%-0.212.1113851384-10%0.012.15868897293%0.461.75315311-4-1%0.130.97202176-26-13%0.060.86613608-5-1%0.721.691226123481%0.192.1110385.1-17.9-17.000000%
OAK156890707-183-21%-0.662.1914161282-134-9%-0.722.4854800-54-6%-0.21.73357305-52-15%-0.190.99205177-28-14%0.010.84796608-188-24%-0.21.6812571256-10%-0.021.6110988.6-20.4-19.000000%
ATL156679711325%0.12.0412891306171%0.692.18859825-34-4%0.191.592502984819%0.590.8518018442%0.220.98598574-24-4%0.61.4614681427-41-3%-0.492.0156691323.000000%
MIL1566136917813%0.881.9111741245716%0.941.92754771172%0.41.762302825223%0.60.7919019221%0.150.815335845110%0.931.6913691338-31-2%-0.031.696876.78.713.000000%
MIN157630674447%0.722.0712531282292%0.362.1780280200%0.331.632662983212%0.520.92185182-3-2%0.080.76507527204%0.641.3814921472-20-1%0.121.87276.24.26.000000%
TEX157699691-8-1%0.72.2212991295-40%0.31.98855828-27-3%0.021.7251273229%0.410.7119319300%0.240.82556534-22-4%0.621.4713051355504%0.411.776973.84.87.000000%
NYY157668707396%0.992.3112211272514%0.622.13766794284%0.321.7426927673%0.320.87186202169%0.320.7658759692%11.4413991419201%-0.062.07777700.000000%
LAA158806722-84-10%0.012.2413661287-79-6%-0.152.21876807-69-8%0.081.59287278-9-3%0.330.8820320300%0.20.8749601-148-20%-0.071.3714151399-16-1%0.021.858779.9-7.1-8.000000%
DET157721697-24-3%0.11212851310252%0.622.44827848213%0.661.82275289145%0.330.85183174-9-5%0.050.89521554336%0.61.2113321324-8-1%-0.061.848379-4-5.000000%
STL155775734-41-5%0.021.7814761341-135-9%-0.742.09941872-69-7%-0.041.93368293-75-20%-0.170.93167177106%0.130.89578593153%0.971.6111591183242%0.31.918680.5-5.5-6.000000%
BOS156756704-52-7%-0.211.7313851326-59-4%-0.332.16851838-13-2%0.031.7329314-15-5%0.050.97205174-31-15%0.070.91586551-35-6%0.641.4513731371-20%0.071.948074.2-5.8-7.000000%
HOU158685708233%0.891.9612861253-33-3%0.22.26805768-37-5%-0.131.9628128100%0.440.7720020442%0.290.77595626315%0.771.7114261452262%0.151.847275.53.55.000000%
CIN158790767-23-3%0.152.0513881336-52-4%0.161.85843816-27-3%0.081.68325310-15-5%0.310.92220211-9-4%0.140.86689634-55-8%0.361.3413581387292%0.291.817783.26.28.000000%
TB158633676437%0.782.1312171268514%0.532.21770790203%0.391.72275292176%0.470.98172186148%0.250.92496540449%0.921.4114671463-40%-0.092.076274.612.620.000000%
CLE158660711518%0.662.1413151308-70%0.192.17849812-37-4%0.071.66296308124%0.210.871701881811%0.240.93578563-15-3%0.511.4112871347605%0.851.858480.9-3.1-4.000000%
NYM155699715162%0.232.2612801264-16-1%01.97842793-49-6%-0.061.38254278249%0.350.75184194105%0.230.8665640-25-4%0.651.5713351381463%0.262.038379.1-4-5.000000%
SD158638697599%0.772.1112421252101%0.012.14820778-42-5%0.111.662522833112%0.410.931701902012%0.280.75629615-14-2%0.491.2914051419141%0.31.488073.2-6.8-9.000000%
WAS157814777-37-5%0.032.1614571379-78-5%-0.172.1956865-91-9%-0.191.782613115019%0.470.97240202-38-16%0.060.81657609-48-7%0.571.3811821230484%0.41.648989.20.20.000000%
ARI157740729-11-1%0.722.2313401312-28-2%0.182.65814804-10-1%0.351.89333319-14-4%0.110.98193189-4-2%0.180.78579592132%0.71.4413021322202%0.252.047478.34.36.000000%
BAL1576567226610%0.942.1813001334343%0.682.6184184651%0.381.99283299166%0.30.89176189138%0.20.79541564234%0.81.311379138010%-0.092.075975.216.228.000000%
TOR1576397288914%1.622.5912751306312%0.772.39812788-24-3%0.251.562723134115%0.580.88191205147%0.340.87558583255%1.041.6214781495171%0.2827076.56.59.000000%
PHI156677711345%0.831.8212711301302%0.391.99814806-8-1%0.091.68277293166%0.280.991802022212%0.20.58512559479%0.751.4514001418181%0.382.16872.94.97.000000%
PIT157762733-29-4%0.232.0713391325-14-1%0.432.21843828-15-2%0.331.66322320-2-1%0.140.9917417842%0.20.9686611-75-11%0.41.3113201313-7-1%0.241.928383.70.71.000000%
COL156906844-62-7%0.172.415341454-80-5%-0.112.29965901-64-7%-0.591.74347343-4-1%0.381.04222210-12-5%0.180.79649601-48-7%0.281.2910761127515%0.381.7810092.3-7.7-8.000000%
CHC155685705203%0.892.1312741289151%0.111.94823811-12-1%0.011.5278290124%0.480.9173188159%0.370.86554576224%0.731.3413141372584%0.311.887476.42.43.000000%
SEA157636616-20-3%0.652.2812681219-49-4%0.192.23822779-43-5%0.111.59267262-5-2%0.30.76179178-10%0.210.8847547941%0.81.5214071419121%0.222.137266.9-5.1-7.000000%
CHW156812750-62-8%0.43213361307-29-2%0.092.45856826-30-3%0.291.87268279114%0.540.74212202-10-5%0.250.71731640-91-13%0.351.6214281362-66-5%-0.452.029787.7-9.3-10.000000%
LAD157670680102%0.612.3912521272202%0.422.2679680041%0.241.96265279145%0.360.7719119321%0.270.8753453510%0.81.3913461403574%0.561.986067.57.513.000000%
SF157685703183%0.491.91354135620%0.032.25889882-7-1%-0.21.8229729921%-0.010.8516817574%0.150.85477516398%1.081.4613151297-18-1%0.171.867981.92.94.000000%
Team Batter Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif RBIs Sim Dif Hits Sim Dif 1B Sim Dif 2B/3B Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif PA Sim Dif SB Sim Dif
Team Pitcher Games DK Points Sim Dif % Dif FD Points Sim Dif % Dif Hits Sim Dif % Dif Runs Sim Dif HR Sim Dif BB Sim Dif K Sim Dif BF Sim Dif Inn Sim Dif W Sim Dif L Sim Dif